Freight policy development: an import-export transport demand model for the Italian case

This paper presents a system of models for the estimation of international (import/export) freight flows by using a partial share approach. It allows us to simulate generation (for export), attraction (for import), distribution and modal split steps for the estimation of Origin-Destination matrices in quantities for different transportation modes. Aiming at predicting long term effects, the modelling system has been specified through easy-to-capture variables represented by level-of-service attributes and aggregate socio-economic variables, such as GDP and employee number. The modelling system was calibrated by means of data available from italian and international organizations (e.g. Italian Institute of Statistics, EuroStat, World Trade Organisation, and Institute for the International Commerce).