Pollen forecast in Rome

Forecast modeling in aerobiology is proposed to achive forecasts that allow allergic population to intervene with targeted and accurate preventive therapies. This benefit not only the individual, but also the community, considering the social cost of pollinosis in terms of therapies and medical examinations and the indirect costs, linked to absenteeism from work and reduced productivity. The allergy is indicated by the WHO as an impor- tant pathology; [1] the trend is increasing [2]. The proposed forecasting model has the advantage of using free software that is easy to use and fast in data processing. The considered variables are: Cupressaceae, Olea europaea L., Platanaceae and Poaceae (Mon- itoring Centre - University Rome Tor Vergata), average daily temperature, daily precipitation, total daily radiation, average daily relative humidity and average daily wind speed [3,4] (Tor Vergata meteorological sta- tion - Regional Functional Center of the Regional Protection Agency of the Lazio Region), between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2017. The package IBM⃝R SPSS STATICS⃝R 25 was using to measure the cross-correlation between the series of pollen concentrations and environmental variables and a statistical self-regressive model ARIMAX in R-3.3.3 type was using for forecasts. The degree of reliability of the daily is always more than 70 %: Cupressaceae 84 %, O. europaea 87 %, Pla- tanaceae 90 %, and Poaceae 72 %, showing a relationship between pollen concentrations and meteorological variables; in pieno accordo con la letteratura che individua in temperatura e radiazione solare le principali variabili temporali [5,6]. Understanding how pollen in air changes - the concentrations and the phenology of the pollen season - and predicting its trend, is of particular interest and closely related to respiratory allergies.