Integration of a nowcasting model based on the meteosat second generation satellite with the nowcasting SAF framework

The modern Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models used to predict the weather conditions work on large scales in both time and space. On the other hand, meteorological events, like thunderstorms, often develop on smallest timeframe because they last from few minutes to few hours, and on a spatial scale that ranges from hundred meters to some kilometers. For these reasons, it is clear that the NWP models are insufficient in order to achieve a good prediction of the extreme meteorological events and it is necessary to use other kind of models, which are able to give high resolution (in space and in time) predictions with a given degree of confidence. The Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, thanks to its high spatial resolution its capacity to provide new images after few minutes, gives the possibility to satisfy some of the requirements needed by nowcasting applications. Indeed MSG allows to follow the development of extreme meteorological events and, in a more wide view, gives the possibility to monitor the environment in an efficient way and to plan actions in the case of dangerous events. This work discusses the integration of a new nowcasting model, named MeteoCAST (Meteorological Combined Algorithm for Storm Tracking) with the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (NWCSAF) framework. The MeteoCAST model produces forecasted synthetic MSG infrared channels, which represent the 2-hours ahead projection, using an ensemble of neural models (DAN approach [25]). The NWCSAF suite is a framework developed under the responsibility of the AEMET. It is based on the MSG and Polar images and is able to produce several meteorological products using the observed images. Some of the generated products are:  Cloud Mask (CM)  Cloud Type (CT)  Precipitating Clouds (PC)  Convective Rainfall Rate (CRR)  Rapid Thunderstorms Development (RDT) The aim of the proposed work is to integrate the output of the MeteoCAST model with the version 2013 of the NWCSAF framework by packing the forecasted synthetic images into the HRIT format. In this way the NWCSAF products became nowcasting meteorological products. In the following sections some results on selected case studies are presented and discussed with respect to the observed NWCSAF outputs.