A six-typology compartment model of trends in the use of illicit drugs in Italy is developed to evaluate policies and interventions through scenario analyses. Inside the big compartments of just-cannabis users and multiple drug users, three subpopulations are taken into account: the occasional, regular and intensive user. Moreover, compartments for health care, assisted persons together with a constant source (susceptible) are added; removed people (i.e. those who leave drugs for any reason) are put in a compartment which does not participate in the dynamics. Flows from the susceptible reservoir among the drug-user compartments and to the removed or the health care compartments are studied in a deterministic linear ODE framework, where parameters are estimated using Italian data. This system shows an evolution towards a steady state, the speed of convergence being dependent on parameters in a fairly visible way. This model represents a theoretical development in drug policy analysis, as it shows the relevance of flux parameters, which are in principle subject to modifications due to institutional efforts, together with a quantitative evaluation of their role in the evolution of the whole system.

Rossi, C., Santoro, M., Triolo, L. (2013). Drug user dynamics: a compartmental model of drug users for scenario analyses. DRUGS-EDUCATION PREVENTION AND POLICY, 20(3), 184-194 [10.3109/09687637.2012.750274].

Drug user dynamics: a compartmental model of drug users for scenario analyses

ROSSI, CARLA;TRIOLO, LIVIO
2013-01-01

Abstract

A six-typology compartment model of trends in the use of illicit drugs in Italy is developed to evaluate policies and interventions through scenario analyses. Inside the big compartments of just-cannabis users and multiple drug users, three subpopulations are taken into account: the occasional, regular and intensive user. Moreover, compartments for health care, assisted persons together with a constant source (susceptible) are added; removed people (i.e. those who leave drugs for any reason) are put in a compartment which does not participate in the dynamics. Flows from the susceptible reservoir among the drug-user compartments and to the removed or the health care compartments are studied in a deterministic linear ODE framework, where parameters are estimated using Italian data. This system shows an evolution towards a steady state, the speed of convergence being dependent on parameters in a fairly visible way. This model represents a theoretical development in drug policy analysis, as it shows the relevance of flux parameters, which are in principle subject to modifications due to institutional efforts, together with a quantitative evaluation of their role in the evolution of the whole system.
2013
Pubblicato
Rilevanza internazionale
Articolo
Esperti anonimi
Settore MAT/07 - FISICA MATEMATICA
English
Con Impact Factor ISI
drug use;mathematical model; drug policy
Ambito Progetto Europeo JUST/2010/DPIP/AG/1410: New methodological tools for policy and programme evaluation.
http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/triolo/STR_DEPP13.pdf
Rossi, C., Santoro, M., Triolo, L. (2013). Drug user dynamics: a compartmental model of drug users for scenario analyses. DRUGS-EDUCATION PREVENTION AND POLICY, 20(3), 184-194 [10.3109/09687637.2012.750274].
Rossi, C; Santoro, M; Triolo, L
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2108/96187
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