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EnglishA six-typology compartment model of trends in the use of illicit drugs in Italy is developed to evaluate policies and interventions through scenario analyses. Inside the big compartments of just-cannabis users and multiple drug users, three subpopulations are taken into account: the occasional, regular and intensive user. Moreover, compartments for health care, assisted persons together with a constant source (susceptible) are added; removed people (i.e. those who leave drugs for any reason) are put in a compartment which does not participate in the dynamics. Flows from the susceptible reservoir among the drug-user compartments and to the removed or the health care compartments are studied in a deterministic linear ODE framework, where parameters are estimated using Italian data. This system shows an evolution towards a steady state, the speed of convergence being dependent on parameters in a fairly visible way. This model represents a theoretical development in drug policy analysis, as it shows the relevance of flux parameters, which are in principle subject to modifications due to institutional efforts, together with a quantitative evaluation of their role in the evolution of the whole system.
Rossi, C., Santoro, M., & Triolo, L. (2013). Drug user dynamics: a compartmental model of drug users for scenario analyses. DRUGS-EDUCATION PREVENTION AND POLICY, 20(3), 184-194.
| Tipologia: | Articolo su rivista |
| Citazione: | Rossi, C., Santoro, M., & Triolo, L. (2013). Drug user dynamics: a compartmental model of drug users for scenario analyses. DRUGS-EDUCATION PREVENTION AND POLICY, 20(3), 184-194. |
| URL: | http://www.mat.uniroma2.it/triolo/STR_DEPP13.pdf |
| Altre informazioni significative: | Ambito Progetto Europeo JUST/2010/DPIP/AG/1410: New methodological tools for policy and programme evaluation. |
| IF: | Con Impact Factor ISI |
| Lingua: | English |
| Settore Scientifico Disciplinare: | Settore MAT/07 - Fisica Matematica |
| Revisione (peer review): | Esperti anonimi |
| Tipo: | Articolo |
| Rilevanza: | Rilevanza internazionale |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/09687637.2012.750274 |
| Stato di pubblicazione: | Pubblicato |
| Data di pubblicazione: | 2013 |
| Titolo: | Drug user dynamics: a compartmental model of drug users for scenario analyses |
| Autori: | |
| Autori: | Rossi,C; Santoro, M; Triolo, L |
| Appare nelle tipologie: | 01 - Articolo su rivista |
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