Japan: The case for Taylor Rule? A simple Approach. In this article I propose two different models to analyze the monetary policy under certain expectations rules: in one polar case expectations are adaptive, in the other polar case are rational. I used these models to judge whether the Taylor Rule can be a good benchmark for the conduction of the monetary policy in Japan, or not. When I looked at the Japanese economy, the conclusion is that a simple AR model fits the data better than the Taylor rule, and that assuming rational expectations in Japan could be highly misleading, at least in the last 10 years. Reconsidering the Present Value Model. The importance to be seasonal. Often economic agents' behaviour is described by Present Value Models, a class of simple dynamic stochastic models such that one variable of interest depends upon expected discounted future values of other variables. Thanks to its simplicity, the strategy attracted much attention even though the statistical tests are usually rejected. Nonetheless in an attempt to overcome these failures, several improvements were suggested. In this paper we take these as starting points to propose a Seasonal Present Value model, that accounts for timing when decisions are taken, i.e. seasonality, while preserving all the features of the data. For concreteness we refer to Permanent Income Hypothesis as a reference economic model. The machinery is applied to Japan and, though the Likelihood Ratio test rejects restrictions imposed to Seasonal Present Value Model, alternative measures for goodness of fit support the idea that seasonality is not an option and must be considered. Never Breaking the Wall -- The old assimilation paradigm confronted to new econometric techniques. In this paper we analyze the process of integration into the European societies of the cohorts of immigrants that reached Western Europe before the mid-1990s. We provide a detailed description of labor market outcomes (employment status and earnings) and main variables responsible for the earning process, distinguishing between natives and immigrants. Indeed the relevant question of the paper concerns the assimilation of immigrants to natives in terms of earnings. However, because not all the population is employed, as recognized in most of the existing literature, in the empirical analysis we also model the sample selection mechanism, but without sacrificing the panel nature of our dataset, as instead always happens in the literature. Using a OLS we would conclude that the assimilation process is strong and alive, but, as going to the FE and to an attrition bias consistent estimator, results are dramatically changed and we finally reject the assimilation hypothesis in earning. Where the assimilation has some importance is instead in the employment mechanism. Our conclusion appear to be robust to some other alternative model specifications.
Depalo, D. (2008). Essays in rational expectations and in migration.
|Titolo:||Essays in rational expectations and in migration|
|Data di pubblicazione:||23-ott-2008|
|Anno Accademico:||A.A. 2007/2008|
|Settore Scientifico Disciplinare:||Settore SECS-P/05 - Econometria|
|Tipologia:||Tesi di dottorato|
|Citazione:||Depalo, D. (2008). Essays in rational expectations and in migration.|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||07 - Tesi di dottorato|