Short- and medium-term projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic indicators are of great interest to those evaluating the needs for health care and prevention interventions. We developed a simulation procedure to obtain forecasts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and used it to estimate the characteristic regional parameters of the epidemic in Italy. The simulation procedure is based on a hybrid compartmental model, in which the epidemic evolves via nonrandom mixing patterns. Because of its structure, the model is suitable for policy making; in particular, for evaluating prevention campaigns, alternate forms of health care for people with AIDS, and drug supply-needs. The model will also be used to estimate the number of intravenous drug users in Italy and the number of AIDS cases not reported or reported with a delay to the Italian surveillance system.

Rossi, C., Schinaia, G. (1998). The mover-stayer model for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in action. INTERFACES, 28(3), 127-143.

The mover-stayer model for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in action

ROSSI, CARLA;
1998-01-01

Abstract

Short- and medium-term projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic indicators are of great interest to those evaluating the needs for health care and prevention interventions. We developed a simulation procedure to obtain forecasts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and used it to estimate the characteristic regional parameters of the epidemic in Italy. The simulation procedure is based on a hybrid compartmental model, in which the epidemic evolves via nonrandom mixing patterns. Because of its structure, the model is suitable for policy making; in particular, for evaluating prevention campaigns, alternate forms of health care for people with AIDS, and drug supply-needs. The model will also be used to estimate the number of intravenous drug users in Italy and the number of AIDS cases not reported or reported with a delay to the Italian surveillance system.
Pubblicato
Rilevanza internazionale
Articolo
Sì, ma tipo non specificato
Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica
English
Senza Impact Factor ISI
health care; epidemiology; simulations; applications
Rossi, C., Schinaia, G. (1998). The mover-stayer model for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in action. INTERFACES, 28(3), 127-143.
Rossi, C; Schinaia, G
Articolo su rivista
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2108/49643
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