The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis, because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters
Solferino, N., Waldmann, R. (2010). Predicting the signs of forecast errors. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 29(5), 476-485 [10.1002/for.1139].
Predicting the signs of forecast errors
WALDMANN, ROBERT
2010-01-01
Abstract
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis, because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecastersFile in questo prodotto:
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