Model identification and transferability analysis for vehicle-to-grid aggregate available capacity prediction based on origin–destination mobility data

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology is emerging as an innovative paradigm for improving the electricity grid in terms of stabilization and demand response, through the integration of electric vehicles (EVs). A cornerstone in this field is the estimation of the aggregated available capacity (AAC) of EVs based on available data such as origin–destination mobility data, traffic and time of day. This paper considers a real case study, consisting of two aggregation points, identified in the city of Padua (Italy). As a result, this study presents a new method to identify potential applications of V2G by analyzing floating car data (FCD), which allows planners to infer the available AAC obtained from private vehicles. Specifically, the proposed method takes advantage of the opportunity provided by FCD to find private car users who may be interested in participating in V2G schemes, as telematics and location-based applications allow vehicles to be continuously tracked in time and space. Linear and nonlinear dynamic models with different input variables were developed to analyze their relevance for the estimation in one-step- and multiple-step-ahead prediction. The best results were obtained by using traffic data as exogenous input and nonlinear dynamic models implemented by multilayer perceptrons and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Both structures achieved an R2 of 0.95 and 0.87 for the three-step-ahead AAC prediction in the two hubs considered, compared to the values of 0.88 and 0.72 obtained with the linear autoregressive model. In addition, the transferability of the obtained models from one aggregation point to another was analyzed to address the problem of data scarcity in these applications. In this case, the LSTM showed the best performance when the fine-tuning strategy was considered, achieving an (Formula presented.) of 0.80