A destructive V-shaped thunderstorm occurred over the Marche Region, in Central Italy, on 15 September 2022. Twelve people died during the event, and damage to properties was extensive because the small Misa River flooded the area. The synoptic-scale conditions that caused this disastrous event are analysed and go back to the presence of tropical cyclone Danielle in the eastern Atlantic. The performance of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model using lightning data assimilation (LDA) is studied in this case by comparing the forecast with the control forecast without lightning data assimilation. The forecast performance is evaluated for precipitation and lightning. The case was characterised by four intense 3-h (3 h) periods. The forecasts of these four 3-h phases are analysed in a very short-term forecast (VSF) approach, in which a 3 h data assimilation phase is followed by a 3 h forecast. A homemade 3D-Var is used for lightning data assimilation with two different configurations: ANL, in which the lightning is assimilated until the start of the forecasting period, and ANL-1H, which assimilates lightning until 1 h before the 3 h forecasting period. A sensitivity test for the number of analyses used is also discussed. Results show that LDA has a significant and positive impact on the precipitation and lightning forecast for this case.

CLAUDIA TORCASIO, R., Papa, M., DEL FRATE, F., Dietrich, S., Enyimah Toffah, F., Federico, S. (2023). Study of the intense meteorological event occurred in september 2022 over the Marche region with WRF model: impact of lightning data assimilation on rainfall and lightning prediction. ATMOSPHERE, 14(7) [10.3390/atmos14071152].

Study of the intense meteorological event occurred in september 2022 over the Marche region with WRF model: impact of lightning data assimilation on rainfall and lightning prediction

Mario Papa;Fabio DEL FRATE;
2023-07-01

Abstract

A destructive V-shaped thunderstorm occurred over the Marche Region, in Central Italy, on 15 September 2022. Twelve people died during the event, and damage to properties was extensive because the small Misa River flooded the area. The synoptic-scale conditions that caused this disastrous event are analysed and go back to the presence of tropical cyclone Danielle in the eastern Atlantic. The performance of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model using lightning data assimilation (LDA) is studied in this case by comparing the forecast with the control forecast without lightning data assimilation. The forecast performance is evaluated for precipitation and lightning. The case was characterised by four intense 3-h (3 h) periods. The forecasts of these four 3-h phases are analysed in a very short-term forecast (VSF) approach, in which a 3 h data assimilation phase is followed by a 3 h forecast. A homemade 3D-Var is used for lightning data assimilation with two different configurations: ANL, in which the lightning is assimilated until the start of the forecasting period, and ANL-1H, which assimilates lightning until 1 h before the 3 h forecasting period. A sensitivity test for the number of analyses used is also discussed. Results show that LDA has a significant and positive impact on the precipitation and lightning forecast for this case.
lug-2023
Pubblicato
Rilevanza internazionale
Articolo
Esperti anonimi
Settore ING-INF/02
Settore IINF-02/A - Campi elettromagnetici
English
Lightning
Data assimilation
Satellite Data
CLAUDIA TORCASIO, R., Papa, M., DEL FRATE, F., Dietrich, S., Enyimah Toffah, F., Federico, S. (2023). Study of the intense meteorological event occurred in september 2022 over the Marche region with WRF model: impact of lightning data assimilation on rainfall and lightning prediction. ATMOSPHERE, 14(7) [10.3390/atmos14071152].
CLAUDIA TORCASIO, R; Papa, M; DEL FRATE, F; Dietrich, S; Enyimah Toffah, F; Federico, S
Articolo su rivista
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
atmosphere-14-01152.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: Versione Editoriale (PDF)
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 12.77 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
12.77 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2108/371603
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 6
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 5
social impact