Extreme sea level variation in future climate change scenarios: the case of Abruzzo region coastal area

One of the possible effects of climate change is the increase in sea level extremes. Therefore, the evaluation of possible scenarios of change, also considering the increase of the mean sea level, may be a crucial point in the evaluation of hazardous events and, consequently, in future coastal planning and adaptation strategies. This work aims at investigating, from a statistical point of view, possible variations in extreme storm surges using the two climate change scenarios provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service for the period 2041–2100 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) compared with the current situation 1979–2017 (ERA 5 database). The analysis is applied to the case study of the coastal stretch of the Abruzzo Region that lies on the Adriatic Sea, which is particularly prone to coastal flooding driven by storm surge events (i.e., sea level variation). Return levels of extreme storm surges have been evaluated for both current and future scenarios to have a general picture of the future variation in coastal flooding areas analyzing also the possible future response of coastal structures (i.e., harbors, breakwaters, groins, etc.) to these changes to highlight the needing of adaptation strategies.