Two-age-structured covid-19 epidemic model: Estimation of virulence parameters to interpret effects of national and regional feedback interventions and vaccination

The COVID-19 epidemic has recently led in Italy to the implementation of different external strategies in order to limit the spread of the disease in response to its transmission rate: strict national lockdown rules, followed first by a weakening of the social distancing and contact reduction feedback interventions and finally the implementation of coordinated intermittent regional actions, up to the application, in this last context, of an age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategy. This paper originally aims at identifying, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level during the specific aforementioned scenarios, external-scenario-dependent sets of virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model, in order to provide an interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19.