Factors predicting pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer: the experience of a single institution with 269 patients (STONE-01)

Aims: The aim of this study was to define a potential benefit of pathological complete response rate (pCR) and downstaging rate after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in relation to treatment and patient factors in locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study. Patients were divided according to chemotherapy regimens concurrent to radiotherapy (1-drug vs. 2-drug) and according to the time interval between the end of CRT and surgery (≤8 weeks vs. >8 weeks), as well as in relation to specific relevant clinical factors. Logistic regression was used to estimate the independent factors for pCR and downstaging. Results: 269 patients were eligible for this study. Overall, pCR and downstaging rates were 26% and 75.4%, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that female gender (p = 0.01) and time to surgery >8 weeks (p = 0.04) were associated with pCR; age > 70 years (p = 0.05) and time to surgery >8 weeks (p = 0.002) were correlated to downstaging. At multivariate analysis, interval time to surgery of >8 weeks was the only independent factor for both pCR and downstaging (p = 0.02; OR: 0.5, CI: 0.27-0.93 and p = 0.003; OR: 0.42, CI: 0.24-0.75, respectively). Conclusions: This study indicates that, in our population, an interval time to surgery of >8 weeks is an independent significant factor for pCR and downstaging. Further prospective studies are needed to define the best interval time.