Forecasting the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection at Earth is of critical importance for our high-Technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e.The error associated to the estimate. Here a statistical approach to the computation of the time of arrival using the Drag-Based Model is proposed through the introduction of probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast.
Napoletano, G., Forte, R., Del Moro, D., Pietropaolo, E., Giovannelli, L., Berrilli, F. (2018). A Probabilistic approach to the drag-based model. In C. Foullon, O. Malandraki (a cura di), Space weather of the heliosphere: processes and forecasts (pp. 304-306). Cambridge University Press [10.1017/S1743921317008122].
A Probabilistic approach to the drag-based model
Del Moro D.;Giovannelli L.;Berrilli F.
2018-01-01
Abstract
Forecasting the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection at Earth is of critical importance for our high-Technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e.The error associated to the estimate. Here a statistical approach to the computation of the time of arrival using the Drag-Based Model is proposed through the introduction of probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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