Use of NARX neural networks for Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI very short-term cloud mask forecasting

In this article, a novel technique based on artificial neural networks (NN) is proposed for cloud coverage short-term forecasting (nowcasting). In particular, the capabilities of multi-layer perceptron NN and time series analysis with nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input NN are explored and applied to the European meteorological system ‘Meteosat Second Generation’ with its payload Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager. The general neural architecture consists of a first stage addressing the prediction of the radiance images at six bands (0.6, 0.8, 1.6, 3.9, 6.2 and 10.8 μm). In a second stage a cloud masking algorithm, always based on NN, is applied to the predicted images for the cloud coverage nowcasting. The scheme was compared with the most basic forecast algorithm for the prediction: the persistent model. Two test areas characterized by different climatology have been considered for the performance analysis. The results show that about 85% of the changes occurring in the time window were recognized by the proposed technique.