Photovoltaic generation forecast for power transmission scheduling: A real case study

The increased penetration of photovoltaic power introduces new challenges for the stability of the electrical grid, both at the local and national level. Many different effects are caused by high solar power injection into the electric grid. Among them, the increased risk of imbalance between the actual and scheduled power transmission is of particular relevance. The consequence is the need to exchange larger amounts of dispatchable power on the balancing energy market. The aim of this work is to analyze and quantify the effects of PV penetration in a target region and to evaluate the energy and economic benefits of using day-ahead PV forecast for power transmission scheduling. For this purpose, we developed several data-driven methods for transmission scheduling that include dayahead PV power forecasts. We compared the resulting operational imbalances from these new models against two reference models currently used by the local grid operators. In the case of no PV generation in the target area, the more accurate reference model leads to an imbalance of 3.6% of the peak power transmission while more accurate data-driven method reduces the imbalance to 3.2%. When the distributed PV capacity is not zero, the imbalance of the reference model grows from 5.15% (at the current penetration of 7%) to 9.8% (at the maximum planned regional penetration of 45%). When we apply the new scheduling model, imbalances are reduced to respectively 3.5% and 5.8% at 7% and 45% of penetration. Since in Italy the costs of imbalances resulting from distributed PV are borne by ratepayers, these costs are estimated to be respectively 2.3% and 15% of the average electricity bill at 7% and 45% penetration if the reference scheduling is used. When applying the new model these costs are respectively reduced to 1.2% and 8.5%.