A dynamic strategy-based path choice modelling for real-time transit simulation

The main objective of this chapter is to present a behavioural assumption and model formulation framework for transit path choice modelling with a descriptive travel strategy approach. Such modelling is suitable for real-time run-oriented simulation-based mesoscopic assignment models, which can support real-time predictive info and real-time operations control when considering unreliable transit systems, with predictive info on the characteristics of the services. The introductory section is devoted to classifying transit assignment models in relation to their use in real-time simulation, and is followed by a section with the concepts of strategy, of the dynamic link diversion choice rule and of anticipated utility, as a combination of experienced and forecasted travel attributes. The second part deals with the path choice model formulation and the relative hyperpath choice set generation issue. The path choice models of three mesoscopic transit simulation tools presented in the literature, namely MILATRANS, BUSMEZZO and DYBUSRT, are also recalled and analysed within this presented framework. Finally, some concluding remarks and research prospects for this topic are reported.