Predictors of adverse outcomes in HIV-1-infected children receiving combination antiretroviral treatment: results from a DREAM cohort in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND: HIV-infected children have less access to combination antiretroviral therapy as compared with adults in resource-limited settings. Growth faltering, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and high mortality are frequently seen. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed with parameters extracted from the Drug Resource Enhancement against AIDS and Malnutrition database for HIV-infected, antiretroviral naïve children under 15 years presenting for care at 17 Drug Resource Enhancement against AIDS and Malnutrition centers in Mozambique, Malawi and Guinea between January 2005 to December 2008. Predictors of time-to-death, time-to-LTFU and persistence of malnutrition by Cox's regression and Kaplan-Meier were determined. RESULTS: 2215 children presented to care with 1343 (61%) being ≤ 5 years. At baseline, stunting and malnutrition occurred in 40% and 25%, respectively; 75% of 2149 children had CD4 cell percentages less than 20; median HIV RNA, log10 cp/mL, was 4.97 in 1927 patients. Over time 238 children died (10.7%; 2.7% person-years [PY]) 63 were LTFU (2.8%; 0.7% PY). By multivariate analysis, mortality was associated with virus load (hazards ratio: 1.19; confidence interval: 1.01-1.402, P = 0.038) and reduced weight-for-age Z scores (hazards ratio: 0.590; confidence interval: 0.53-0.66, P < 0.001). LTFU was associated with low weight-for-height Z scores (hazards ratio: 0.71; confidence interval: 0.51-0.97, P = 0.031). At 12 months after combination antiretroviral therapy, anthropometric parameters significantly improved in 1226 children (P < 0.001); virus load declined to <400 copies/mL in over 60%. CONCLUSIONS: Despite advanced HIV disease, children initiating combination antiretroviral therapy had mortality rates of 2.7% p/PY with overall attrition rates of 11.7% p/100 PY, with significant reversal of negative anthropometric markers, and improvement of immunological and virological parameters in children with 12 months of follow-up.