In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children’s survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. If certain conditions are met, both the financial market and the family network are used to transfer resources to old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children’s survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children’s death is not the only link between fertility decision and children’s mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.

Rosati, F.c., Atella, V. (1999). Uncertainty about children’s survival and fertility: a test using Indian microdata [Working paper].

Uncertainty about children’s survival and fertility: a test using Indian microdata

ROSATI, FURIO CAMILLO;ATELLA, VINCENZO
1999-05-01

Abstract

In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children’s survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. If certain conditions are met, both the financial market and the family network are used to transfer resources to old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children’s survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children’s death is not the only link between fertility decision and children’s mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.
Working paper
Rilevanza internazionale
Settore SECS-P/03 - Scienza delle Finanze
English
Rosati, F.c., Atella, V. (1999). Uncertainty about children’s survival and fertility: a test using Indian microdata [Working paper].
Rosati, Fc; Atella, V
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2108/126
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