An analytical solution for the modelling of the natural time-dependent reduction of waterborne viruses injected into fractured aquifers.

We propose an analytical solution in order to explain the processes that determine the fate and behavior of the viruses during transport in a fractured aquifer at Salento (Italy). The calculations yield the efficiency of filtration in fractures at a site near Nardò (Southern Italy) in reducing the numbers of enteric viruses (i.e., Enteroviruses and Norovirus) in secondary municipal effluents that have been injected in the aquifer over the period 2006-2007. The model predicted, by a theoretical expression, the time-dependent rate of virus reduction, which was in good agreement with field data. The analytical solution yields the achievable "Log reduction credits" for virus reduction in wells located at the setback distances that are usually adopted in local drinking water regulations. The resulting new analytical formula for the time-dependent reduction of viruses during subsurface transport can easily be applied in health risk-based models used to forecast the spread of waterborne diseases and provides appropriate criteria (i.e., distances) needed to meet standards for the quality of drinking water derived from undisinfected groundwater.