In a behavioral variant of a New Keynesian model, in which individuals use simple heuristic rules to forecast future inflation and output, if there are limits on the amount of debt that economic agents are allowed to bear, we observe occasionally severe downturns. Differences in beliefs combined with borrowing constraints tend to dampen expansions, but give rise to a chain reaction that exacerbates the recessions. The model is an example of endogenous credit cycles with expansions, severe recessions, and persistent inequality in the distribution of wealth. Monetary policy can both stabilize the economy and cause increased average output.

Annicchiarico, B., Surricchio, S., Waldmann, R. (2019). A behavioral model of the credit cycle. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, 166, 53-83 [10.1016/j.jebo.2019.09.010].

A behavioral model of the credit cycle

Annicchiarico Barbara
Formal Analysis
;
Surricchio Silvia
Writing – Review & Editing
;
Waldmann Robert
Writing – Original Draft Preparation
2019-01-01

Abstract

In a behavioral variant of a New Keynesian model, in which individuals use simple heuristic rules to forecast future inflation and output, if there are limits on the amount of debt that economic agents are allowed to bear, we observe occasionally severe downturns. Differences in beliefs combined with borrowing constraints tend to dampen expansions, but give rise to a chain reaction that exacerbates the recessions. The model is an example of endogenous credit cycles with expansions, severe recessions, and persistent inequality in the distribution of wealth. Monetary policy can both stabilize the economy and cause increased average output.
2019
Pubblicato
Rilevanza internazionale
Articolo
Esperti anonimi
Settore SECS-P/01 - ECONOMIA POLITICA
English
Con Impact Factor ISI
Credit cycle; Heuristic rules; Behavioral macroeconomics; Monetary policy
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268119302847
Annicchiarico, B., Surricchio, S., Waldmann, R. (2019). A behavioral model of the credit cycle. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, 166, 53-83 [10.1016/j.jebo.2019.09.010].
Annicchiarico, B; Surricchio, S; Waldmann, R
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2108/232346
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